02 June 2007

Assembly elections

Voters in Wales will decide on the shape of the third term Assembly

On 3rd May, voters in Wales will decide on the shape of the third term Assembly. New powers given to the Assembly by the Government of Wales Act will mean that, whoever does take charge after May’s elections, the Assembly will have an even greater ability to shape public services and life in Wales according to its priorities.

But whatever the new powers of the Assembly, the relationship between the Assembly and Westminster will continue to be vital for Wales’ prospects. As a former Welsh Secretary, I know the importance of the Assembly and Westminster working together, especially in areas such as economic development. The benefits of this ‘teamwork’ were there for all to see in the success of the St. Athan bid to host the defence training academy. In all the talk of new powers as we enter a new Assembly term, this is something I hope will not be forgotten.

At the forefront of peoples’ minds as they decide how to vote, however, will not be these constitutional factors, but consideration of how the Assembly can improve their day-to-day lives. Which party can they count on to deliver better schools, to give our young people the chance to succeed in life? Which party will invest in health, to better equip our hospitals and work towards a healthier nation? And which party has the ideas necessary to meet the challenges, and take the opportunities, posed to the Welsh economy by globalisation?

Child poverty is an issue that has rightly been placed at the forefront of the campaign. I am proud that it is Labour that has had the courage to make eradicating child poverty a central pillar of their manifesto. Under a third term Labour Assembly, all departments and their related services would work towards a 2020 goal of ending the scandal and wasted potential of child poverty in Wales. The people of Wales have never voted merely on self-interest, but also on underlying values. I believe the issue of child poverty will show that 2007 will be no exception.

History suggests that Wales will wake up on 4th May to either a Labour administration with a small majority, or to an Assembly with no single party in the majority. Think of it what you may, the voting system, where forty AMs are elected via first-past-the-post constituencies and a further twenty are elected via ‘top-up’ regional lists, means that the result is likely to be tight either way. So, that means either a Labour Assembly Government, or a coalition – possibly led by the Tories and involving the LibDems and Plaid Cymru.

So, that’s a clear choice, but what will the Welsh electorate decide? Labour will have to work hard to secure a majority, but it can be done. The Assembly has achieved much for Wales in its first two terms, and can point to successes in creating extra jobs as well as solid and popular achievements like free bus passes for pensioners and free prescriptions, which will be introduced in Wales in April.
Increasingly in Wales, as elsewhere, local factors will make a big difference to results. Local issues will continue to influence votes and the efforts of especially hard-working Assembly members and candidates will be taken into account by an increasingly well informed and tactically aware electorate. Turnout will also be key - less than four in ten voted in 2003 - although I believe that the Assembly is becoming increasingly accepted as part of governance in Wales.

A handful of seats, and possibly a handful of votes, will decide the outcome. Motivation then for people in Wales to use their vote - and motivation for candidates and party activists to get to work campaigning!

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